British Columbia (Rajeev Sharma)–Washington border crossings saw a sharp rise at the start of 2025, but the momentum quickly reversed, leading to steep declines that are now hurting businesses in U.S. border communities.
Data shows that in January 2025, the number of B.C.-registered vehicles entering Washington state increased by 10 per cent compared to the previous year. At the time, experts described the surge as part of a broader post-pandemic recovery.
Laurie Trautman from Western Washington University’s Border Policy Research Institute said the growth reflected Canadians returning to pre-COVID travel habits. “We had been on an upward trajectory month over month,” she said, adding that the trend was encouraging—until it suddenly changed.
That shift came in February, when political rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, including tariff threats and remarks about Canada becoming the 51st state, appeared to dampen cross-border travel. Land crossings by B.C. vehicles fell 29 per cent in February and plunged further to 43 per cent in March. April recorded the steepest decline of the year, with crossings down 51 per cent year over year.
Although there was a modest uptick during the summer months, renewed concerns about border experiences and potential hassles discouraged many Canadians from travelling south.
“We’re hearing from Canadians who are either genuinely fearful of situations at the border or simply don’t want to deal with the uncertainty,” Trautman said.
Figures from the final five months of 2025 paint a bleak picture. B.C. border crossings were down an average of 38 per cent compared to 2024—well above the national average decline of 22 per cent.
Trautman noted that the nature of cross-border travel in British Columbia makes it especially sensitive to change. “Unlike places such as Detroit-Windsor, where many people cross for work, travel here is often discretionary—shopping, visiting friends or family—and those trips can easily stop.”
The decline has taken a heavy toll on Washington state businesses that rely on Canadian customers, particularly in border towns.
Guy Occhiogrosso of the Bellingham Regional Chamber of Commerce warned that the downturn may not be temporary. “Locally, we’re probably looking at years of this being the norm,” he said. While large retailers may adapt, smaller businesses near the border face a much tougher road.
Some have already shut down. Trautman confirmed that several businesses in Point Roberts and Blaine have closed due to reduced Canadian traffic.
Looking ahead to 2026, optimism remains low in Whatcom County. However, Occhiogrosso emphasized that Canadians are still welcome. “We understand there are many reasons you’re not ready right now,” he said, “but when you are, you’ll be welcomed by us.”
