New Delhi (Rajeev Sharma): India witnessed one of its driest Junes in more than 120 years, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reporting a significant rainfall deficit across the country. The weather agency has also projected that rainfall during July is likely to remain below the long-term average, although some regions are expected to receive spells of good precipitation.
According to IMD, the country received only 99.5 mm of rainfall in June against the normal average of 165.3 mm, leaving a shortfall of nearly 40 per cent. This makes June 2026 the fifth-driest June since systematic rainfall records began in 1901.
Despite the weak start to the monsoon season, meteorologists have clarified that a dry June does not necessarily indicate a below-normal monsoon for the entire season. Historical data suggest that in several years with deficient June rainfall, the remaining months compensated for the shortfall.
The weather department said the southwest monsoon is likely to advance into the remaining parts of northwestern India, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan, over the next few days as conditions continue to improve.
While rainfall in July is expected to remain below the seasonal average at the national level, IMD has identified several regions that are likely to witness relatively better rainfall activity. These include parts of eastern and central India, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and several northeastern states, along with parts of Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
The department also indicated that daytime temperatures are expected to stay above normal across much of the country during July, except for isolated pockets in west-central India where temperatures may remain near or slightly below average. Night temperatures are also likely to remain warmer than usual over most regions.
Meteorologists attributed the subdued rainfall outlook partly to weak El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can influence the strength of the Indian monsoon.
IMD officials, however, maintained that the overall monsoon performance will depend on rainfall distribution during the remaining months and advised against drawing conclusions solely from June’s rainfall deficit. They noted that the monsoon remains dynamic, and weather systems developing over the coming weeks could improve seasonal rainfall totals.
