Trump Bets on Fragile Iran as U.S. and Tehran Prepare for High-Stakes Oman Talks

Muscat, April 12, 2025 — Former U.S. President Donald Trump is renewing efforts to push Iran toward a nuclear deal, betting that recent regional setbacks have left Tehran too weak to resist diplomacy. Talks are set to begin Saturday in Oman between Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Trump, flying to Florida aboard Air Force One on Friday, said, “I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country, but they can’t have a nuclear weapon.” His administration is seeking a deal tougher than the 2015 Obama-era agreement he abandoned during his first term.

The backdrop to the talks is tense. Iran’s allies — Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi militants — have suffered military defeats. Israeli strikes in October targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, while U.S. airstrikes in Yemen struck key Houthi sites. Syria’s Assad, a longtime Iranian ally, was ousted in December. Meanwhile, Iran’s economy continues to struggle under years of international sanctions, further worsened by fresh U.S. Treasury penalties announced this week.

Though Trump insists on a “diplomatic solution,” experts warn the risk of military action is rising. Iran is now enriching uranium up to 60%, dangerously close to weapons-grade.

It’s unclear whether the Oman talks will be face-to-face. Trump claims they will be direct. But Iran says the two parties will speak through Omani intermediaries. Despite initially rejecting a personal appeal from Trump, Iran has left the door open to indirect talks.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated Iran doesn’t want a nuclear bomb and hinted at openness to future U.S. investment — a notable shift from its post-2015 posture.

National Security Adviser Mike Waltz says the U.S. wants Iran’s full nuclear program dismantled, including enrichment and missile development. However, Witkoff suggested the U.S. might settle for halting weaponisation — not total disarmament.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after meeting Trump earlier this week, supports a Libya-style agreement that would strip Iran’s entire nuclear infrastructure. Trump has not openly embraced that model.

Analysts say if the U.S. keeps its focus narrow — simply preventing weaponisation — the talks might succeed. But stakes remain high, and any misstep could edge the region closer to conflict.