Ottawa (Rajeev Sharma): After spending several years building lives in Canadian communities, many temporary residents are now facing the prospect of leaving the country as immigration policies tighten and job instability grows.
One young worker in southwestern Ontario arrived in Canada in 2019 as an international student, completed post-secondary education, and invested tens of thousands of dollars in tuition and living expenses. After graduating, he secured employment in the automotive sector and applied for permanent residence through a provincial immigration pathway.
That pathway collapsed when successive layoffs—linked to economic pressures and tariffs—caused him to lose the employment required to remain eligible. With his work permit expiring within weeks, long-term plans to settle permanently, start a business, and buy a home have been abruptly paused.
His experience reflects a broader national issue.
According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), nearly 1.5 million temporary resident permits expired last year, with another 1.4 million set to expire this year. More than half of those expirations are expected by mid-year. These figures do not include study permit holders.
By comparison, Canada admitted fewer than 400,000 permanent residents annually in recent years. Even accounting for approvals, federal data suggests more than two million people could be left with expired or expiring status over a two-year period.
IRCC maintains that temporary status does not guarantee permanent residency and that individuals must leave Canada once their authorized stay ends. Those who lose status may apply for restoration within 90 days, provided they meet eligibility criteria.
Under the federal government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, permanent resident admissions will remain below one per cent of Canada’s population after 2027. The share of temporary residents is also expected to decline to under five per cent of the population by that time.
Immigration experts warn the policy assumes widespread voluntary compliance from those whose permits expire—an assumption they argue is unrealistic. Many temporary residents sold assets, incurred debt, or uprooted families to come to Canada, and returning home is not always economically or socially feasible.
Enforcement data shows removals have already increased sharply in recent years, but specialists say scaling enforcement to match the volume of out-of-status residents would overwhelm administrative capacity and create significant humanitarian consequences.
Immigration consultants report a surge in demand from temporary residents seeking permanent residency strategies or last-minute status extensions. Many say the number of applicants far exceeds the available pathways.
Some experts worry desperation may drive people underground, despite the legal risks. Others argue the system failed to clearly communicate that permanent residency is competitive and never guaranteed.
Calls are growing for policy adjustments that prioritize applicants already living and working in Canada—particularly those contributing to key industries and local economies.
For many temporary residents, the path forward remains uncertain. Some are pursuing additional language credentials or alternative immigration streams, while others are preparing to leave and continue their applications from abroad.
As one worker put it, the uncertainty is overwhelming—but giving up does not feel like an option.
