Chandigarh (Gurpreet Singh): Northwest India may witness the arrival of the southwest monsoon earlier than usual this year, with weather officials indicating that the system could begin entering the region around June 20.
The expected onset is nearly a week ahead of the usual June 24 to June 26 window, raising hopes for timely rainfall across key agricultural states.
Forecast maps released by the India Meteorological Department suggest that the first monsoon currents may reach eastern Himachal Pradesh and parts of Uttarakhand by June 20. The weather system is then expected to gradually spread across larger parts of the hill states by June 25 before moving deeper into Punjab and Haryana towards the end of the month.
If conditions remain favourable, most parts of northwest India are likely to be covered by the monsoon by the first week of July, while western Rajasthan may receive full seasonal coverage by July 8.
The projected advance mirrors the pattern seen last year, though it remains earlier than several recent seasons when the monsoon arrived closer to late June. Over the past two decades, such an early onset has remained relatively rare.
The monsoon has already advanced into southern stretches of the Arabian Sea and parts of the Bay of Bengal. It is expected to reach Kerala around May 26, earlier than its usual June 1 arrival, reflecting healthy early movement of seasonal winds.
However, despite the early progress, the national monsoon outlook for 2026 remains slightly below average. IMD estimates suggest rainfall across the country could remain around 92 percent of the long-term average, though changing ocean conditions later in the season may improve rainfall activity.
Weather experts say a possible strengthening of systems over the Indian Ocean could help balance the weakening influence of El Niño, which often suppresses rainfall across parts of India.
The monsoon remains vital for India’s economy, especially for farming communities that depend heavily on seasonal rainfall. Nearly two-thirds of the population is linked directly or indirectly to agriculture, while a large share of farmland still relies on rain-fed irrigation.
Current water reserves offer some reassurance. Reservoir levels across major northern dams, including Bhakra, Pong, Kol and Thein, are currently reported to be well above normal for this time of year.
Agriculture experts believe an early arrival, combined with healthy reservoir storage, could provide a strong start to the kharif crop season if rainfall remains evenly distributed in the months ahead.
