Quetta (National Times): As the dust settles on the Iran-Israel conflict following a ceasefire agreement, the fallout continues to ripple across Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan, which shares a 900-kilometer border with Iran. While Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) met on June 23 to assess the strategic implications of the war, the human cost is unfolding in real-time for communities living along the border.
Home to a population that straddles both sides of the frontier, the Baloch region is facing a crisis of livelihood and essential supplies. Border crossings at key transit points such as Gwadar, Kech, Panjgur, and Washuk were abruptly shut down amid the hostilities, bringing a halt to daily trade, travel, and religious pilgrimages.
“This closure has disrupted thousands of lives,” said Gwadar’s Assistant Commissioner Jawad Ahmed Zehr, confirming the border shutdown from the Pakistani side. “Families that depend on cross-border commerce and connections are now stranded and struggling.”
A Region Built on Cross-Border Dependency
The region’s heavy reliance on Iranian fuel, electricity, and trade goods is now proving to be a critical vulnerability. Balochistan’s Makran division, for instance, receives over 70 percent of its 142.5 MW electricity from Iran. Additionally, the daily smuggling of approximately 4,000 tons of petroleum, diesel, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Iran—often labeled as informal trade—has long sustained the local economy.
But with fuel supplies disrupted, prices of petroleum products and food have skyrocketed. “Everything is more expensive. Markets are half-empty. This is the worst we’ve seen in years,” said a shopkeeper in Turbat, a city near the Iranian border.
Strategic Damage, Local Consequences
The war’s impact on Iran’s energy infrastructure is reverberating across borders. Attacks on the South Pars gas field—which produces 80 percent of Iran’s natural gas—and damage to critical export hubs like Kharg Island have slashed Iranian crude exports from 1.7 million barrels per day to just over 100,000 bpd. These losses not only affect Iran’s own supply but disrupt the informal yet essential pipeline to Balochistan.
Refineries in Tehran, Bushehr, and Fars were also struck, limiting Iran’s processing capacity. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on power grids have further crippled energy flow, creating an economic chain reaction now visible in Pakistan’s border towns.
A Smuggling Nexus or an Economic Lifeline?
Government officials have long criticized the informal fuel trade for depriving the national treasury of an estimated $35.8 million in monthly revenue. In 2023, then-caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar described the trade as a “deep-rooted nexus” between smugglers and their enablers.
However, locals argue this criticism ignores harsh realities. “This isn’t about smuggling, it’s about survival,” said a trader in Panjgur. “There are no industries, no jobs. People depend on this trade to feed their families.”
Time for a Humanitarian Reassessment
The crisis exposes not just a geopolitical fragility, but a humanitarian one. With Iran’s energy exports crippled and cross-border trade suspended, entire communities in Balochistan risk sinking deeper into poverty. For many, the border has never just been a line on a map—it’s been a lifeline.
Experts are urging the Pakistani government to reevaluate its strategy. “This is not just a matter of diplomacy or national security,” said a regional analyst. “It’s a humanitarian issue that could spiral into unrest if left unaddressed.”
As uncertainty looms over when border activity will resume and to what extent, Islamabad faces urgent choices. Will it find ways to support Balochistan’s struggling communities? Or will they remain collateral damage in a war fought far beyond their control?
