New Delhi (Rajeev Sharma): Senior Indian officials have reaffirmed the country’s commitment to importing affordable crude oil from Russia, notwithstanding former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of penalties. This resolute stance underscores New Delhi’s growing disillusionment with Washington’s increasingly unpredictable foreign policy, signaling a significant shift in India’s approach to safeguarding its national interests.
President Trump recently cautioned that a 25 percent tariff on India, along with unspecified penalties, would be imposed should the country fail to terminate its oil trade with Russia. “I understand that India is no longer going to be buying oil from Russia,” Trump informed reporters last week. “That’s what I heard. I don’t know if that’s right or not. That is a good step. We will see what happens.”
However, senior Indian officials clarified that no such policy change has occurred. “The government has not issued any directive to oil companies to reduce imports from Russia,” one official confirmed. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized that India’s bilateral relations “stand on their merit and should not be seen from the prism of a third country.” He added that India and Russia share a steady and time-tested partnership.
Analysts in New Delhi suggest Trump’s threats may be more about his dissatisfaction with Russia over the Ukraine conflict or a bargaining tactic in ongoing U.S.-India trade talks. However, experts point out that if the goal is to pressure Russia, penalizing India alone is unlikely to be effective, especially as major buyers like China and Turkey continue their Russian oil imports without facing similar consequences.
Former Deputy National Security Adviser Pankaj Saran noted, “Even if India cuts its imports to zero, China won’t. That would leave China benefiting from cheap Russian oil, a bizarre and counterproductive outcome.” Since Russia invaded Ukraine, India has significantly increased its purchases of Russian crude, now importing around two million barrels per day, over one-third of its total oil supply. This shift was driven by discounted pricing and the country’s need to secure energy for its population of 1.4 billion. India imports nearly 90% of its oil, and officials argue that diversifying sources is essential, especially when U.S. sanctions in the past forced India to stop oil imports from Iran and Venezuela, moves that led to financial losses and energy uncertainty.
A senior Indian official also referenced the losses incurred when Trump imposed sanctions on Venezuela, only for the Biden administration to relax later and then reimpose them. The unpredictability of U.S. sanctions policy has made India wary of aligning its vital energy policy with Washington’s shifting geopolitical goals. Additionally, countries like Saudi Arabia often charge higher prices to Asian buyers under a policy known as the “Asian Premium,” making alternative sources economically less attractive.
India’s insistence on continuing oil imports from Russia signals a clear intent to assert its strategic autonomy and shield its economic interests from external political volatility, especially as global energy dynamics grow more uncertain.
