New Delhi (Gurpreet Singh)— India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday, raising concerns for agriculture and water resources.
Addressing a press conference, M Ravichandran said the country is expected to receive rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing it in the “below normal” category. He was accompanied by IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
The monsoon, which typically spans from June to September, is considered normal when rainfall ranges between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA, pegged at 87 cm based on data from 1971 to 2020. The current forecast carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 per cent.
Officials said evolving global climate conditions are influencing the forecast. Weak La Niña-like conditions over the Pacific are transitioning towards neutral, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to develop later in the season. These factors, combined with favourable northern hemisphere snow cover, are expected to shape rainfall distribution across the country.
The IMD noted that climate models also indicate a possible shift towards El Niño conditions during the monsoon period, which typically suppresses rainfall in India.
This is the first-stage forecast for the 2026 monsoon, with an updated outlook to be issued in the last week of May. The forecasting system now uses a combination of dynamical and statistical models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, to improve accuracy.
The southwest monsoon usually arrives over Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September, playing a critical role in India’s agriculture, economy and water security.
