Canadian Cities Face Major Economic Risks from U.S. Tariffs: Chamber of Commerce Report

Ottawa, February 12, 2025: A new study by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce has identified Calgary, Saint John (N.B.), and Windsor (Ont.) as the most vulnerable cities to U.S. tariffs, particularly in the oil, automotive, and manufacturing sectors. The U.S. Tariff Exposure Index, based on Statistics Canada trade data, assessed the impact of former President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports, which have now been enforced on steel and aluminum.

Saint John, N.B., is the most at-risk city, home to Canada’s largest crude oil refinery, which exports over 80% of its output to the U.S. Other key exports from the region include seafood and forestry products. Calgary ranks second due to its reliance on crude oil, natural gas, and beef exports. Meanwhile, automotive and parts manufacturing hubs in southwestern Ontario—including Windsor, Hamilton, and Sault Ste. Marie—face significant economic uncertainty. Saguenay and Trois-Rivières in Quebec are also highly exposed, with 85% of aluminum exports directed to the U.S.

Stephen Tapp, Chief Economist at the Chamber of Commerce, warned that Trump’s tariffs could have severe local economic consequences, stating, “For some of Canada’s cities, the threat is far more local and personal. This data should guide policymakers in shaping Canada’s response to these unnecessary and unjustified tariffs.”

Some cities, such as Victoria and Halifax, are less vulnerable due to their stronger trade ties with Asia and Europe, while Sudbury benefits from a diversified export base, including nickel and copper. Despite a temporary tariff delay until March 4 due to ongoing U.S.-Canada border security negotiations, Chamber of Commerce CEO Candace Laing cautioned, “The looming tariff threat is still very real. This is not a game we want to play when so many livelihoods depend on a stable relationship with the U.S.”