Ottawa (Rajeev Sharma): Canada could soon confront a major undocumented immigration challenge as hundreds of thousands of work permits expire amid a sharp tightening of immigration rules under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Indians are expected to be the worst affected, given their large presence among temporary workers and international students, according to data accessed by Hindustan Times.
Figures from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada show that about 1.05 million work permits expired by the end of 2025, with another 927,000 set to lapse in 2026. Mississauga-based immigration consultant Kanwar Seirah, who obtained the data, said the scale and pace of expiries are unprecedented in Canada’s modern immigration history. Once a permit expires, individuals immediately lose legal status unless they secure a new visa, obtain permanent residency, or apply for restoration within a 90-day window. However, these options have become increasingly limited due to policy changes aimed at reducing temporary and non-permanent migration.
Indians are particularly vulnerable as they form a significant share of Canada’s temporary workforce and student population. Seirah warned that the situation could turn chaotic, noting that nearly 315,000 permits are expected to expire in the first quarter of 2026 alone, compared to around 291,000 in the last quarter of 2025. By mid-2026, he estimates Canada could have as many as two million undocumented migrants, with Indians accounting for roughly half — a figure he described as conservative given the shrinking legal pathways.
Signs of strain are already emerging. Tent encampments have reportedly appeared in wooded areas of Brampton and Caledon in the Greater Toronto Area. Brampton-based journalist Nitin Chopra told Hindustan Times there is anecdotal evidence of out-of-status Indian migrants taking up cash-based work. He also pointed to the rise of informal networks allegedly arranging marriages of convenience as a means of retaining legal status.
Under current rules, migrants whose permits expire have 90 days to seek restoration, during which they are barred from working. High fees and long processing times further complicate the process, forcing many to choose between leaving Canada or remaining without legal status. Migrant advocacy groups have begun mobilising, with the Naujawan Support Network announcing protests in January to highlight the lack of viable options for affected workers.
The situation has been exacerbated by a broad policy reset under the Carney government. Ottawa has announced strict immigration caps until 2028, covering permanent residents, temporary workers, international students, and refugees. Permanent residency targets are set to fall to 380,000 in 2026, while intakes under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, student visas, and refugee admissions are being cut.
Carney has defended the changes, saying Canada needs a more focused immigration approach that aligns with labour market needs and reduces pressure on housing, infrastructure, and social services. The government aims to lower the share of non-permanent residents from about 7 per cent of the population to 5 per cent by the end of 2027.
Canada’s shift marks a departure from recent years, when nearly 1.2 million newcomers arrived between 2022 and 2023, driving the fastest population growth since the 1950s. While the surge supported economic growth, it also intensified housing shortages and strained healthcare systems. Public opinion has since turned more critical, with surveys indicating that many Canadians blame high immigration levels for rising housing costs and overstretched public services.
Immigration experts warn that unless policy adjustments are made, the combination of mass permit expiries and limited legal exits could produce the very outcome the government is seeking to avoid. If even a fraction of those losing status remain in Canada, the country could face one of the largest undocumented populations in its history, with Indian migrants bearing the brunt of the fallout.
