India to Slash Russian Oil Imports as New US Sanctions Take Effect November 21

New Delhi, November 6, 2025 — India is set to sharply curtail its direct imports of Russian crude oil starting late November, as new US sanctions targeting Moscow’s major oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, come into effect on November 21.

Indian refiners, who currently handle over half of the country’s Russian crude imports, are expected to comply with the sanctions, industry analysts said. The move is likely to disrupt global oil trade flows, prompting Indian companies to reassess their sourcing strategies to avoid any potential US penalties.

According to Kpler, a maritime intelligence firm, Russian crude arrivals in India could fall significantly in December. However, experts predict that imports may stabilize in early 2026 as refiners turn to intermediaries and indirect trading routes to sustain supply chains.

Reliance Industries Ltd, India’s largest buyer of Russian crude and a long-time Rosneft partner, has already decided to halt purchases. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) — a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal’s energy firm — have also suspended imports.

Together, these three refiners accounted for more than half of India’s 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil imports during the first half of 2025. However, Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is expected to continue receiving Russian supplies.

Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, said Russia remained India’s top crude supplier in October, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. He noted that while Russian shipments previously averaged 1.6 to 1.8 million bpd, a visible decline began in late October as refiners moved cautiously to avoid conflict with the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Analysts believe Russian crude will not vanish entirely from India’s energy mix but warn that future deals will involve intermediaries, complex logistics, and blended shipments. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are boosting imports from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the US to offset the gap.

US crude exports to India surged to 568,000 bpd in October — the highest since March 2021 — driven by attractive prices and favorable trade dynamics. These volumes are expected to normalize between 250,000 and 350,000 bpd by December and January.

“We expect visible reductions in Russian crude arrivals after November 21,” Ritolia said. “Most Indian refiners will comply with the US sanctions and either halt or sharply reduce direct purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil.”