New Delhi (Rajeev Sharma) : The escalating trade war between the United States and China is rattling global markets, but experts say it could turn into a significant opportunity for Indian exporters. With Washington imposing steep new tariffs on Chinese goods, American demand is expected to shift toward Indian products, offering a major boost to India’s export prospects.
The US has announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, taking total duties to a staggering 130%. The move comes in retaliation to Beijing’s decision on October 9 to restrict exports of rare earth elements — materials essential to the US defense, electric vehicle, and renewable energy sectors.
S.C. Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said India’s exports to the US, worth $86 billion in 2024–25, are likely to rise following these tariff hikes. “We may gain from this escalation,” Ralhan told PTI, emphasizing that higher US duties on Chinese goods will make Indian products more competitive.
Several industry leaders echoed this optimism. A leading textile exporter said that with existing US tariffs on Indian goods at 50%, “the additional 100% duty on Chinese products will give us a clear advantage.” Toy exporter Manu Gupta added that the move would “create parity and offer a level playing field,” noting that major US retailers like Target have already contacted Indian suppliers for new product lines.
Trade experts at the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) cautioned that while India may benefit, the broader conflict could push up global prices for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and semiconductor components. The US remains heavily dependent on China for electronics, textiles, footwear, white goods, and solar panels.
For the fourth consecutive year, the US was India’s largest trading partner in 2024–25, with bilateral trade reaching $131.84 billion, including $86.5 billion in exports. America accounts for 18% of India’s total exports and over 10% of its merchandise trade. Both nations are currently in talks to finalize a bilateral trade agreement aimed at further strengthening economic ties.
However, analysts warn that the ripple effects of this trade war could spread to other economies. Mexico and Canada — key US trade partners — may face disruptions, while Asian nations such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore could experience slower growth due to supply chain adjustments in the electronics and manufacturing industries.
