New Delhi, July 5 — Local gold prices in India are expected to maintain an upward bias in the second half of 2025, potentially breaching the psychologically significant ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams mark, according to a report released by ICICI Bank Global Markets.
Domestic prices, which currently hover in the range of ₹96,500–₹98,500 per 10 grams, rose 0.6 per cent in June despite a broader global trend of stable prices. The uptick was attributed in part to a modest depreciation of the Indian rupee by 0.2 per cent during the month.
“Local gold prices are expected to continue trading with an upside bias moving from a near-term range of ₹96,500–₹98,500 to ₹98,500–₹1,00,000 per 10 grams in H2 2025,” the report noted.
However, in volume terms, gold imports have declined on a sequential basis, signalling that elevated prices may be tempering consumer demand. India imported gold worth $2.5 billion in May, down from $3.1 billion in April.
Despite weaker physical demand, investment interest in gold has remained robust. The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reported a net inflow of ₹2.92 billion into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in May after two consecutive months of outflows, underscoring investor appetite for the yellow metal as a financial asset.
Globally, gold prices have been flat over the past month, reflecting an easing of safe-haven demand. Yet, year-to-date, gold remains up 28 per cent in 2025, buoyed by earlier geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
A significant factor cooling global gold demand has been the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which improved overall risk sentiment. Simultaneously, progress on trade negotiations between the United States and several partners including the UK, Vietnam, Japan, India, and the European Union has contributed to stabilising markets.
The report highlighted that the United States and China have also agreed on a framework for a potential trade deal expected to conclude by August, further calming concerns over an escalation into a new trade war.
“The easing in geopolitical tensions and expectations that trade-war 2.0 could ease in magnitude have worked to limit further sharp upside emerging in gold prices,” the report stated.
While jewellery demand has softened amid high prices, the report emphasised that investment-related buying continues to be the key driver supporting gold’s upward trajectory both globally and in India.
