India to Face 43% Rise in Extreme Rainfall and 2.5-Fold Surge in Heatwaves by 2030: Study

New Delhi, June 10, 2025 — A new study by IPE Global and Esri India has projected a sharp escalation in climate extremes, warning that India is on course to experience a 43% surge in extreme rainfall intensity and a 2.5-fold increase in the number of heatwave days by the year 2030. The study, unveiled at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, suggests the country is entering an era of concurrent heat and rainfall stress, which could have far-reaching impacts on human health, urban planning, agriculture, and disaster preparedness.

Titled “Weathering the Storm,” the report emphasizes that India’s cities and vulnerable districts are ill-prepared for the scale of climate disruptions anticipated in the next five years. Major metros such as Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, Surat, Thane, Patna, and Bhubaneswar are likely to witness more than double the current number of heatwave days, often coupled with erratic downpours that will test the resilience of already strained infrastructure.

Lead author and IPE Global’s Head of Climate Change and Sustainability, Abinash Mohanty, noted that climate change is no longer a distant threat but a pressing reality. He warned that unless there is immediate investment in hyper-local risk assessments and infrastructure planning, the intensity of heat and rainfall extremes will escalate, particularly in tier-I and tier-II urban centers.

According to the report, India has already witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat days between 1993 and 2024, particularly during the March-to-May (MAM) and June-to-September (JJAS) periods. In the last decade alone, these events have spiked nearly 19 times. The study identifies that eight out of every ten Indian districts will be at risk of multiple instances of extreme rainfall events by 2030, and 72% of urban areas will face overlapping risks of heatwaves and sudden heavy rainfall.

Regions flagged as highly vulnerable include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur, with over 80% of districts in these states likely to be affected by extreme climate events. Coastal regions are particularly at risk, with nearly 70% of coastal districts expected to endure prolonged heat stress by 2030, a figure that may rise to 80% by 2040.

IPE Global’s Founder and Managing Director, Ashwajit Singh, said the study highlights the urgent need to shift from reactive disaster management to proactive resilience planning. He called for climate resilience to be embedded into the country’s development strategy. The report points to localized environmental degradation such as deforestation, loss of mangroves, and poorly planned urbanization as significant aggravators of climate vulnerability.

To mitigate the looming crisis, the study recommends the creation of a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) that uses satellite data and predictive modelling to guide local planning. Esri India’s Managing Director Agendra Kumar stressed the importance of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in integrating climate data into public policy, infrastructure planning, and disaster management.

Other measures proposed include appointing district-level heat-risk champions, developing climate-risk financing tools, and mainstreaming spatial intelligence into governance frameworks. The study is one of the first of its kind to link district-level climate risks with microclimatic assessments, providing policymakers with actionable data tailored to India’s diverse geographic and socio-economic landscape.

In conclusion, the report asserts that India’s ability to cope with future climate extremes will depend less on global models and more on its willingness to adopt hyper-local, adaptive strategies rooted in data and sustainability.