Geneva, May 28, 2025 — In a grave forecast for the planet’s climate future, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has projected a 70% probability that the Earth’s average annual temperature will exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels during at least one year between 2025 and 2029.
This threshold, set under the 2015 Paris Agreement, is considered a critical limit to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change. The WMO report underlines that while the breach may be temporary, the rising frequency of such events signals an alarming trend.
According to the data, there is an 86% chance that one of the next five years will become the hottest on record, surpassing 2016. Though the 1.5°C overshoot may not be permanent yet, scientists warn that repeated breaches make long-term exceedance more likely and normalization of extreme weather inevitable.
The Arctic region is projected to warm at more than three times the global average, raising concerns about accelerated ice melt, sea level rise, and destabilization of local ecosystems. Meanwhile, regions like South Asia may witness heavier monsoon rainfall, whereas the Amazon is forecasted to face greater drought risk due to reduced precipitation and rising temperatures.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that this is “yet another wake-up call” for governments to deliver on emission reduction pledges and step up climate adaptation efforts. “The global climate system is sending signals of distress. We must act decisively and immediately,” she stated.
The report comes amid increasing heatwaves, wildfires, and erratic weather patterns across continents, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced climate resilience and global cooperation.
Earth Likely to Breach 1.5°C Global Warming Threshold Between 2025–2029: WMO Warns
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