Liberal Lead Grows to Double Digits as Carney Gains Ground Amid U.S. Tariff Tensions

Ottawa, April 7, 2025 — The Liberals have surged to a commanding 12-point lead over the Conservatives as Canada’s federal election campaign enters its third week, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

Support for the Liberals now stands at 46 per cent, up two points from last week. In contrast, Conservative support has dropped four points to 34 per cent. With this gap, the Liberals are firmly in majority government territory if the election were held today, Ipsos noted.

NDP support edged up to 10 per cent, while the Green Party and Bloc Québécois gained one point each, registering three and six per cent respectively. About seven per cent of voters remain undecided.

The widening lead reflects a shift in momentum for Liberal Leader Mark Carney, who also leads in personal popularity. Forty-five per cent of voters view him as the best choice for prime minister — a one-point increase. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s support fell to 32 per cent, while NDP’s Jagmeet Singh rose four points to 12 per cent.

Carney’s leadership was put to the test last week as he temporarily paused campaigning twice to address new U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. After emergency cabinet meetings and coordination with provincial premiers, Carney announced counter-measures. A call with Trump on March 28 appeared to ease tensions, with no new tariffs announced during Trump’s subsequent “Liberation Day” tariff speech.

Despite the diplomatic crisis, Canadians appear to have rallied around Carney. Ipsos found 47 per cent of those surveyed now believe the Liberals deserve re-election, while 53 per cent say it’s time for a new party — a notable shift from last week when more were undecided.

Voters overwhelmingly see the Liberals as the party best equipped to manage U.S. relations, giving them a 40-point lead over the Conservatives on the issue. This comes as Canada-U.S. relations have become the second-most important election issue, behind affordability.

The poll also found that 69 per cent of Canadians hope for a majority government to avoid another early election, and nearly 90 per cent believe this election is “critical” for Canada’s future.

Ipsos noted that 53 per cent of voters say they are “absolutely certain” about their choice, while 16 per cent admitted they’ve changed their vote in the last month — signs that the race, while leaning Liberal, still holds surprises.