Toronto, April 6, 2025 — A vast majority of Canadians believe the ongoing federal election is the most important in the country’s history, as tensions rise over threats to Canadian sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump. According to a recent Nanos Research survey, 86 per cent of respondents said this election matters more than previous ones.
This sentiment was strongest in Ontario and British Columbia, where nearly 90 per cent of people expressed heightened concern. Even in regions with slightly lower figures—such as Quebec and the Prairies—support for the statement remained high, at 79.2 and 81.9 per cent respectively.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said the findings reflect a focused and engaged electorate. “Canadians are clearly focused on the election and the choices before them,” he said.
Leadership choice is proving to be the main factor influencing voters. Nearly 39 per cent said their vote would primarily depend on who leads the party. Just 24 per cent said they would vote based on party affiliation, while 15 per cent are driven by specific policy decisions. Another 13 per cent said their vote would be motivated either for or against a certain party or leader, and under six per cent are focusing on their local candidate.
The stakes are high. New Prime Minister Mark Carney, who emerged as Liberal leader just weeks ago, faces off against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Carney, with no prior elected experience but deep roots in international finance, is up against Poilievre’s seasoned political presence. Poilievre’s path to victory seemed clear until Trudeau’s exit and Trump’s renewed threats disrupted the landscape.
Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP and Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois are seeing dwindling support. With the economy in flux and international relations strained, many Canadians are prioritizing leadership above all else.
Carney currently leads Poilievre by 20 points in national leader preference, according to the same polling.
Canadians are also calling for modernization in the voting process. About 58 per cent favor online voting, while 36 per cent oppose it. However, there’s little appetite for penalizing non-voters: 51 per cent oppose fines for not voting, though 44 per cent are in favor.
The poll, commissioned by CTV News and the Globe and Mail, surveyed 1,054 adults between March 29 and April 1. It carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
